Estimates vary between 47 and 80 years of fossil fuels left to power the world. Granted estimates from the past have been revised upward as new deposits have been found. One thing that is not in conflict is that there is indeed a limited supply of oil, natural gas, and coal. It could be decades or hundreds of years but we need a longer-term game plan. A growing population and increasing reliance on electronic machinery and devices means the usage of fossil fuels will increase into the future. Annual energy demand growth is outstripping energy production growth for several years now. That’s where Uranium and fission reactors step in.
Environmental Considerations
Fossil fuels are “dirty”. Efforts to clean up emission have been underway for a number of years. However, there are still large amounts of pollution generated by fossil fuel power plants. This article by Richard Matthews does a fantastic job profiling the emissions of both fossil fuels and nuclear energy plants. While not without it’s big considerations, nuclear energy is a very “clean” energy generation process. The efficiency of fission reactors have been rising for decades. The true key is if fusion reactors can become a commercial reality. However, that would require more Tritium supply and that is a story for another day. The focus right now is on nuclear fission reactors’ role and their future role.
According to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, coal plants generate around 2,200 lbs of carbon pollution per megawatt-hour (MWh), natural gas generates 1,100 lbs of CO2 per MWh while nuclear does not generate any. The overwhelming logic of nuclear power is impossible to ignore.
Say what you want about whether we should be hyper focused on CO2 emissions at all but nuclear diffuses that conversation. Because it creates none.
Uranium mining methods do cause environmental impacts and need to be evolved as we will need new uranium sources. Traditional uranium ore mining (think pick axes and mine carts) is less impactful to the surrounding environment and a focus on nuclear energy could yield much cleaner methods of liquid extraction (which has a higher level of potential environmental impact).
Uranium Stores & Supplies
Current Uranium stores could be depleted by the end of the 21st century. This means we are in need of exploration and mining as it is. It’s part of the reason it’s likely to be a great investment opportunity. However, keep in mind that uranium has a useful life that is far longer than the average barrel of oil or pile of coal. The current uranium fuel we have access to could create energy for 4 billion years. This article by Dr. Nick Touran details the method of reaching that estimate.
The growth rate of Uranium mining/production is expected to compound at 4.1% annually. This means uranium mining companies are planning for increased demand as the price continues to remain high or rise even higher.
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The Obstacles
Public Sentiment
The biggest one is public opinion. After two bombs, historical accounts of past reactor accidents like Chernobyl, and Fukushima fresh in everyone’s memory, the public has lukewarm support for nuclear energy. Many of my favorite childhood movies and comic book characters were created out of a perceived fear of what nuclear energy could do. However, necessity as well as further research and access to information online has started to turn the tide. Many folks are being introduced to the sustainable, clean, and efficient energy future that nuclear can provide. It’s also being seen in the growing support within governmental bodies.
Upfront Cost
Nuclear power plants cost twice what coal power plants and five times as much as natural gas power plants to construct. This means the front end capital is restrictive. In addition, there are long-term considerations such as how to safely dispose of waste product and the costs to decommission the reactor in the future (if needed). This means there’s a lot of risk in building a nuclear plant in addition to all of the red tape and regulation involved. This ultimately will become the biggest hurdle after public sentiment flips. Currently nuclear power plants are limited to 20-40 year life spans like coal. However, I feel that lifespan will be increased dramatically as more come online and investments are made into new designs and technology within the plants.
Investible Future
Oil and petroleum products have been in use for over 2000 years. Uranium and nuclear power generation have the ability to succeed the use of fossil fuels and be the standard for millennia to come. Longer-term investments in uranium have the potential to grow for lifetimes. They’ll be investments that can be passed down for generations. I will continue to slowly build my URA position as I explore deeper into the world of nuclear power. More on this in the future!
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****Keep in mind that investment and investment results are very much based on you as an individual. I am not an investment advisor. I’m a dude with an opinion. Do not rely solely on the discussion here to inform your investment decisions. Always make the investment decisions that are right for you and your situation****
Links
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